Modeling A New Years Resolution

Part of the problem with becoming a cost estimation aficionado, who thrives on parametric modeling, is that one tends to think they can build a model for just about everything: Software, Hardware, Aircraft wings, IT infrastructures, cattle futures, etc. In fact, the more one builds the estimates and discovers that the answers are accurate - the more insatiable the desire becomes. Certainly, it must be possible to build a parametric model for nearly anything!

With that in mind - and considering the time of year - what a perfect opportunity to finally perfect that nastiest of all New Years Eve resolutions, (and the one that rings the bells of cash registers in health clubs, sporting goods stores, and vitamin shops around the world):

"This year I vow to... LOSE WEIGHT!" But, how can one use a parametric modeling approach to losing weight, you ask? Ah, let that beguiling high begin as sacred knowledge bases are considered and the plethora of parameters prescribed. This should be quite easy, after all, look how much a software estimate has in common with losing weight:

* "size" is certainly the largest driving factor in software and ones girth,

* an increase in functionality (due to the lost weight) is the desired outcome for both,

* a methodology must be selected (diet, exercise, grapefruit enemas) to provide an approach,

* and the rigor of oversight (a personal trainer) is key to success or failure

It looks to me as if the math necessary to build a software model contains all the same components for losing weight. Let's give it a try! First I will need to select the appropriate knowledge bases that best reflect what I am trying to model.

The Human Problem

1. I want to lose weight so I can perform better in my personal and professional life.

2. I'd like my body to be slimmer and more attractive.

3. I'm willing to increase my exercise and significantly modify my diet.

4. I prefer to measure my performance in short cycles to ensure I'm making progress.

5. I will need a nutritionist and personal trainer to keep me motivated and encourage my success.

The Software Equivalent

1. Platform: Business Mission Critical - General business and management information system host platform environments that perform functions critical to the execution of the enterprise's primary mission

2. Application: Graphical User Interface - the impacts of developing user interfaces for business and other applications.

3. Acquisition Type: Major Modification - Design will change up to 30% and regression testing will need to be done on all code.

4. Development Method: Agile Full - The primary criterion for determining the content of each repetition is customer need (and is typically customer driven). The focus of this strategy is for the software to evolve as the customer requirements are interpreted and implemented over time.

5. Development Standard: Commercial High - assumes relatively formal processes and reviews to ensure that sufficient documentation is available to maintain and update the software.

Now then, all that's left is to decide is how much weight I want to lose! The best approach would be to look at this as a problem of "calories may cometh but more calories must go-eth!" Since, 3500 is the typical number of calories burned per pound of fat, then for every pound I want to lose I multiply that number by 3500. For example, if I want to lose 35 pounds (hypothetically speaking... honestly), then 3500 x 35 pounds = 122,500. This now represents my calorie weight loss goal.

Of course I need to know my current size expressed as calories (rounding down) 200 x 3500 = 700,000

That means my ideal weight in calories would be (700,000 - 122,500) = 577,500 (or 165 pounds). Now there's a goal!

Using estimation speak - I can say I have 700,000 preexisting calories, plan to delete 122,500 calories so that my effective size will be 577,500 calories. Easy, right?

But, before I go much farther I need to decide what would be a safe and reasonable number of pounds to lose per month. After all, I'm not interested in a starvation diet - (Emmm, Beer!), but I don't want this to take forever. Why not a goal of one year! That way this time next year I can pick a new resolution. So, my goal is (122,500 / 12 months) or 10,208 calories per month.

Finally, using the SEER for Software cost estimation software from Galorath Incorporated, all I have to do is:

1. Create a proxy that reflects my calories per month in effort I'll need to expend,

2. Select my knowledge bases using the table above,

3. Plug in my ideal weight into the "design for reuse amount",

4. Enter the amount of weight to be lost as my "preexisting not designed for reuse"

Drum roll please... and voila! The answer is I can lose the weight in Ten Months using a peak staff of 4.4 people (Me, trainer, dietician, and fan club I suppose).

Wow -only ten months for me to lose all this hypothetical weight! And that makes since, because as the plan progresses I will be building muscle that burns the calories even faster. Using the SEER for Software cost estimation modeling application I've proven that you really can build a parametric model for anything! Now all I need is a ten month sabbatical, funding for the full time dietitian and trainer, and a fan club. Any volunteers?

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